I will compare the Uruguayan lineup against Ghana to that against South Korea. This is a more meaningful comparison due to the more similar profile of the two teams compared to Portugal.
Caceres is dropped for Varela, a more offensive player. Uruguay need to win the game. The more defensive Caceres was probably played against South Korea due to the threat of Son Heung-Min.
Coates comes in for Godin while Arrascaeta replaces Vecino.
From the onset, Uruguay played with much more purpose, agency and authority than in their match with South Korea.
The pressing system was immensely improved and the players seem more coordinated, with Suarez and Nunez having more of an influence on the game.
Rochet fumbled a simple save which led him to hack a player down in the box. He made up for it by saving Ayew’s penalty. It’s very poetic that 12 years after that famous handball and penalty save, Ghana missed a penalty in a crucial World Cup game against Uruguay.
It did not take long for the game to swing the other way. Suarez, though long past the peak of his powers, has not lost all of his lustre and nicely set two up for Arrascaeta.
Ghana substituted the Ayew brothers off at the half to boost their attack but were never able to find the net and get their so-called revenge against Suarez.
Uruguay’s 2-0 lead and spot in the RO16 seemed secure. The Uruguay camp was in good spirits. But the football scriptwriting gods had one last climax in store.
A late, cruel twist of events in the other match between Portugal and South Korea meant South Korea were going to qualify on goals scored. Son Heung-Min set up a winner for Wolves’ Hwang Hee-Chan in injury time. Uruguay needed one more goal to gain a superior goal difference.
The scene cut to an image of Suarez in tears, the fans in despair, and back to the Uruguayan players, instilled with renewed urgency as they came to a shocking realisation of their dire situation.
But Uruguay’s best attacking players Nunez, Arrascaeta and Suarez were already on the bench.
Uruguay had to work with what they had on the field. Ghana were of course not going to do their nemesis any favours. Uruguay’s players strove and fought, but it was not to be.
Uruguay were unfortunate in some ways. Bruno Fernandes’ late penalty in the Portugal game proved decisive. Match order was also critical. Portugal played Uruguay in Matchday 2 before South Korea in Matchday 3. If it were the other way round, Uruguay would have had a much higher chance of qualification.
In the South Korean match, Portugal didn’t really care about winning. They didn’t care much about drawing either. They’ll end up top of the group anyway.
Match order can make all the difference. Japan would have a lower chance of beating Germany/Spain if Japan played them in the 2nd round instead of the 1st and 3rd rounds.
Uruguay will regret playing too conservatively and settling for a draw against South Korea in the first round. In a tournament group stage with just 3 games, you simply cannot play like this, especially when facing a minnow team. Manager Diego Alonso’s has a poor sense of tournament tactics.
Loved seeing the likes of Cavani, Godin, Gimenez, Bentancur and Muslera letting the referee know what they thought of him and picking up yellow cards.
Player Ratings 😔
Starters
Rochet 6/10
Conceded a penalty but fortunately saved it. Good save. Would be very hard to forgive him if the penalty cost Uruguay the game and qualification.
Varela 7/10
Provided an outlet on the right in attack unlike Caceres. Was a breath of fresh air after seeing that previous Caceres performance.
Coates 7/10
Solid enough.
Gimenez 7/10
Did his job.
Olivera 6/10
Had an okay game.
Pellestri 4/10
Poor and lacking end product again. Had a big chance to score. That miss turned out costly.
Valverde 8/10
What a monster.
Bentancur 8/10
He was excellent in the 30+ minutes he was on the pitch. Ran the midfield very well. All the goals were scored when he was on the field and Uruguay could have played much better and scored more if he did not get injured. A big shame he had to be taken off.
Arrascaeta 8/10
The system of play works much better with him playing instead of Vecino. Quick to react for the first and a great finish for the second.
Suarez 8/10 MOTM
Could have given my MOTM to Arrascaeta but I had to give it to Suarez. Assisted Arrascaeta twice. Drew many fouls too. Feel so bad for him.
Nunez 6/10
He had a few chances to run through at goal and did all he could for one of them, but still could not find his debut World Cup goal. Yellow card for dissent. Could have won an important penalty that would have sealed Uruguay’s qualification.
Subs
Vecino 5/10
Unable to have the same impact as Bentancur.
Cavani 6/10
I thought he was going to score that header.
De La Cruz 5/10
Should have passed instead of shot for that last free-kick😡. This is not me reacting with the benefit of hindsight. I believe that shooting from free-kicks is inefficient in terms of goalscoring productivity for most teams. But that’s a story for a possible post in the future.
Gomez NIL
Canobbio NIL
Manager
Diego Alonso 3/10
Credit to him for making tactical changes that allowed Uruguay to win the game against a tricky Ghana side, but it’s his lack of foresight and over-aversion to risk that made him take off Nunez and Arrascaeta at a stage where Uruguay potentially needed to score even more. He is at great fault.
It’s the last time for legends Suarez, Cavani and Godin. Uruguay lose out on a knockout spot on goals scored. The attack was just too lacklustre in the first group game.
Tournament group stage calculus can be brutal. I was looking forward to a South American clash between Brazil and Uruguay which is sure to be heated and nail-biting.
An Aside
(Further evaluation of Uruguay’s very insipid draw against South Korea.)
The conservative Uruguayan tactics in their first match to the Koreans was an example of misaligned incentives in the spirit of the principal-agent problem.
From the perspective of the Uruguayan national football team, they want to maximise their progress in the tournament and chances to win it. The optimal strategy would be to go for the jugular against South Korea, as Uruguay would need to fight for the top place in the group to avoid tournament-favourites Brazil in the RO16.
The manager of a football team, however, is a reputation and job security-maximising agent. Hence he would want to maximise his chances of qualifying for the knockouts. This alternative set of considerations inclines one towards a more tentative and risk-averse approach in the first round of the games, contributing to the draw to South Korea.
Is my analysis apt? What are some solutions to this distorted incentive structure?
BLOGOPUS 